NK Istra 1961
HNL 25/26 · Season Performance Report · 36 matches played
Generated 27 May 2026, 21:40
Source: Sofascore API
43
Points
36 matches
12717
W · D · L
39–50
Goals F / A
GD -11
1.02
Avg xG / game
1.82 xGA · net -0.8
49.7%
Avg Possession
0.402
Avg Perf. Index
3.2 SOT · 4.9 opp SOT
Shots in box/gm6.4
Big ch. missed/gm0.9
Fouls/gm11.8
Best performance
R5 vs Gorica (1–0)
PI 0.734
Worst performance
R4 vs Dinamo (0–3)
PI 0.087
Season Analysis

NK Istra 1961 concluded the 2025-26 HNL season with 43 points from 36 matches, a record of twelve wins, seven draws, and seventeen losses that yielded a goal difference of minus eleven. With 39 goals scored against 50 conceded, this represents a disappointing campaign for a club of Istra's stature and ambitions. A mid-table finish in the Croatian top flight demands greater resilience and consistency than the twelve wins demonstrated here, placing them firmly in the relegation-battle periphery rather than establishing themselves as genuine contenders for European qualification or even a sustained push toward the upper reaches of the table.

The underlying metrics expose a team caught between defensive fragility and offensive inefficiency. An expected goals against figure of 1.82 per match—substantially higher than their expected goals for of 1.02—reveals that Istra's backline was systematically exposed to dangerous situations, conceding quality chances at nearly double the rate they created them. Their 49.6% possession suggests a somewhat balanced tactical approach, yet the disparity in shots on target—3.2 for versus 4.9 against—confirms they were outshot and outmuscled in the final third. A Performance Index averaging 0.402 across the season paints a picture of a team that struggled to impose their identity; missing 0.9 big chances per game while defending sloppily at a rate of 11.8 fouls per outing indicates both profligacy in attack and a tendency toward desperation defending. Their best performance came in the narrow victory over Gorica (PI 0.734), yet their worst—a three-goal evisceration at the hands of Dinamo (PI 0.087)—suggests they were tactically overwhelmed by superior sides.

The alarming collapse between the first and second halves of the season crystallizes Istra's trajectory toward mediocrity and potential crisis. The opening eighteen matches yielded 26 points with a respectable Performance Index of 0.442, while the second half deteriorated markedly to just 17 points across eighteen matches accompanied by a concerning decline to 0.362. This steady erosion—losing five additional matches while gaining only five fewer points—indicates squad morale faltered, tactical adjustments failed to materialize, or both. Without intervention to bolster defensive solidity and unlock greater offensive precision, Istra face the real prospect of sliding toward the relegation zone in the forthcoming campaign.

✦ AI Analysis · Claude · Anthropic
EU Qualification Race — Varaždin & Slaven Belupo
Pos Club Pts W·D·L GD xG xGA PI
#3Varaždin5415·9·12+11.251.360.469
#6Istra4312·7·17-111.021.820.402
#8Slaven B.4110·11·15-151.141.640.425
Istra vs Varaždin — H2H
3W 0D 1L (6:4)
1–0 (H, R9) · 3–1 (A, R18) · 2–1 (H, R27) · 0–2 (A, R36)
Istra vs Slaven Belupo — H2H
1W 1D 2L (5:5)
1–2 (A, R6) · 1–1 (H, R15) · 0–1 (A, R24) · 3–1 (H, R33)
Performance Index v2 — per match & 5-game rolling average
Expected Goals — xG (Istra) vs xGA (opponent) per round
Ball Possession % per round — red ≥ 50 % (dominant)
First leg vs second leg breakdown

First Leg — Rounds 1–18 (18 matches)

Record7W · 5D · 6L
Points26
Goals F / A (GD)24 / 23 (+1)
Avg xG / xGA1.2 / 1.76
Avg Possession48.6%
Avg Perf. Index0.442

Second Leg — Rounds 19–36 (18 matches)

Record5W · 2D · 11L
Points 17 ↓ declined
Goals F / A (GD)15 / 27 (-12)
Avg xG / xGA0.84 / 1.88
Avg Possession50.8%
Avg Perf. Index 0.361 ↓ declined
Season-over-season comparison — NK Istra 1961
SeasonGPW · D · LPts Goals (GD)xG/gmxGA/gmPossAvg PI
HNL 24/253611 15 104839–42 (-3)1.191.2449.2%0.479
HNL 25/26 ◄3612 7 174339–50 (-11)1.021.8249.7%0.402
Performance Index trend — 5-match rolling average by season
Key metrics per season
Coaching History — Season by Season
CoachNat.Tenure Gms W · D · L PPG Goals xG xGA PI
HNL 23/24
Mislav Karoglan
Mislav Karoglan
Croatia07.2023 – 08.202330 1 20.331–10 (-9)0.411.660.255
David Catala
David Catala
Spain08.2023 – 02.2024174 4 90.9413–24 (-11)1.141.150.431
Sergej Banović
Sergej Banović
Croatia08.2023 – 08.202310 1 01.04–4 (0)1.422.020.446
HNL 24/25
Sergej Banović
Sergej Banović
Croatia12.2024 – 12.202410 1 01.02–2 (0)2.141.620.478
HNL 23/24
Paolo Tramezzani
Paolo Tramezzani
Italy02.2024 – 05.2024156 5 41.5318–16 (+2)1.020.970.505
HNL 24/25
Paolo Tramezzani
Paolo Tramezzani
Italy08.2024 – 12.2024174 6 71.0616–27 (-11)1.191.40.418
Gonzalo Garcia
Gonzalo Garcia
Uruguay01.2025 – 05.2025187 8 31.6121–13 (+8)1.141.070.536
HNL 25/26
Goran Tomić
Goran Tomić
Croatia08.2025 – 09.202561 2 30.836–10 (-4)1.161.650.396
Oriol Riera
Oriol Riera
Spain09.2025 – 04.2026239 4 101.3529–33 (-4)1.051.930.407
Krešimir Režić
Krešimir Režić● current
Croatia04.2026 – present52 1 21.44–4 (0)0.831.330.436
Overall totals across all seasons
CoachNat.Seasons GmsW · D · L PPG Goals PI
Paolo TramezzaniPaolo Tramezzani
ItalyHNL 23/24 · HNL 24/253210 11 111.2834–43 (-9)0.459
Oriol RieraOriol Riera
SpainHNL 25/26239 4 101.3529–33 (-4)0.407
Gonzalo GarciaGonzalo Garcia
UruguayHNL 24/25187 8 31.6121–13 (+8)0.536
David CatalaDavid Catala
SpainHNL 23/24174 4 90.9413–24 (-11)0.431
Krešimir RežićKrešimir Režić
CroatiaHNL 25/2652 1 21.44–4 (0)0.436
Goran TomićGoran Tomić
CroatiaHNL 25/2661 2 30.836–10 (-4)0.396
Sergej BanovićSergej Banović
CroatiaHNL 23/24 · HNL 24/2520 2 01.06–6 (0)0.462
Mislav KaroglanMislav Karoglan
CroatiaHNL 23/2430 1 20.331–10 (-9)0.255

The clearest results-based peak across Istra's coaching carousel belongs to Gonzalo García, whose 18-match spell in the second half of 24/25 produced 29 points at 1.61 PPG — the best rate of any tenure in the dataset and well above the 1.2 PPG mark that signals genuine quality for a mid-table HNL club. García inherited a squad that Tramezzani had steadied through the opening months of the season and promptly unlocked its attacking potential: 7 wins and only 3 defeats in 18 games represents a run that, projected over a full campaign, would have challenged for European places. Tramezzani's own record splits sharply across his two stints — 1.53 PPG over 15 games at the end of 23/24, then 1.06 PPG from 17 games in 24/25 — a meaningful drop that likely reflects reduced squad quality between seasons rather than tactical regression. David Català's 17-match tenure in the first half of 23/24 returned just 0.94 PPG, explaining the mid-season change, while Mislav Karoglan's three-game opening (0.33 PPG) was a difficult beginning to what became a turbulent year. In 25/26 the picture is more layered: Goran Tomić's six-game transition period (0.83 PPG) gave way to Oriol Riera's 23-match stint at 1.35 PPG, with Krešimir Režić opening at an encouraging 1.40 PPG from his first five games.

The Performance Index data adds important texture. García's 0.536 PI stands as the highest of any substantive tenure, confirming that his results reflected genuine dominance — better chance creation, tighter defensive structure, and more controlled possession — rather than fortunate finishes. Tramezzani's first stint posted the second-highest PI at 0.505, consistent with a team playing at a high level in the closing months of 23/24; notably, his underlying quality actually exceeded that of García's predecessor Gonzalo in raw performance terms, though García converted more of that quality into points. Tramezzani's second tenure dropped to 0.418, a significant fall in line with his results decline. Català's 0.431 is the most analytically interesting figure: his team generated relatively strong underlying performance but converted only 0.94 PPG, suggesting a squad capable of playing well but undermined by poor finishing or decision-making in key moments. In 25/26, Riera (0.407), Režić (0.436), and Tomić (0.396) occupied a tight band, pointing to squad ceiling as the primary constraint on Istra's output in the third season regardless of who was in the dugout.

✦ AI Analysis · Claude
Salary & Value — HNL 25/26 · HNL wage bill vs results
€3.62M
Istra wage bill
#5 / #6
Salary rank / League pos
-1
Rank delta (pos above wage rank)
-2.9 pts
Points above expected
€25.42M
Top wage bill (Zagreb)
+15.0
Best overperformance (Varaždin)
Wage bill vs points — with expected regression line
Points above / below expected (log-salary model)
#ClubSalaryPtsW · D · LGoals (GD) Pts/€M Rank Δ Pts vs Exp
1GNK Dinamo Zagreb€25.42M8627 5 493–28 (+65)3.40+7.9
2HNK Hajduk Split€12.95M6820 8 861–36 (+25)5.30+1.0
3NK Varaždin€2.38M5415 9 1247–46 (+1)22.7+6+15.0
4HNK Rijeka€7.31M5314 11 1149–36 (+13)7.3-1-4.5
5NK Lokomotiva Zagreb€2.89M4410 14 1240–52 (-12)15.2+1+1.8
6NK Istra 1961€3.62M4312 7 1739–50 (-11)11.9-1-2.9
7HNK Gorica€2.6M4111 8 1740–48 (-8)15.8+1+0.6
8NK Slaven Belupo€2.66M4110 11 1546–61 (-15)15.4-1+0.2
9NK Osijek€5.55M358 11 1727–49 (-22)6.3-5-18.0
10HNK Vukovar 1991€1.31M286 10 2037–73 (-36)21.40-1.1
NK Istra 1961 — salary vs results by season
SeasonWage billPointsPositionPts/€M
HNL 23/24€2.53M41816.2
HNL 24/25€2.55M48518.8
HNL 25/26€3.62M43611.9
Match-by-match results
Rnd Date H/A Opponent Score Res xG xGA Poss SOT Box shots Big ch. Perf. Index
103 Aug 2025AHajduk1–2L0.731.9343.0%371
0.246
209 Aug 2025HLokomotiva2–2D1.331.1457.0%4102
0.491
315 Aug 2025AVukovar1–1D1.411.4153.0%563
0.493
423 Aug 2025ADinamo0–3L0.092.9834.0%110
0.087
529 Aug 2025HGorica1–0W2.50.9742.0%6104
0.734
612 Sep 2025ASlaven B.1–2L0.91.4551.0%351
0.326
721 Sep 2025HOsijek2–1W1.112.2251.0%571
0.565
827 Sep 2025ARijeka0–0D0.472.6848.0%140
0.272
903 Oct 2025HVaraždin1–0W0.611.2149.0%451
0.531
1019 Oct 2025HHajduk0–3L1.261.9551.0%2112
0.309
1125 Oct 2025ALokomotiva2–1W1.031.8952.0%241
0.535
1201 Nov 2025HVukovar1–1D1.430.6656.0%4101
0.537
1309 Nov 2025HDinamo2–1W1.792.5635.0%453
0.523
1423 Nov 2025AGorica0–1L1.062.2257.0%571
0.283
1529 Nov 2025HSlaven B.1–1D1.041.955.0%352
0.419
1607 Dec 2025AOsijek5–1W2.051.049.0%684
0.711
1720 Jan 2026HRijeka1–2L1.641.3346.0%482
0.387
1819 Dec 2025AVaraždin3–1W1.082.2645.0%461
0.499
1925 Jan 2026AHajduk2–1W1.242.1837.0%463
0.528
2030 Jan 2026HLokomotiva1–1D0.991.1267.0%141
0.427
2107 Feb 2026AVukovar2–3L1.733.1963.0%472
0.244
2214 Feb 2026ADinamo0–4L0.093.6742.0%110
0.098
2321 Feb 2026HGorica0–2L0.482.1661.0%341
0.246
2427 Feb 2026ASlaven B.0–1L1.131.7452.0%392
0.33
2506 Mar 2026HOsijek0–1L1.410.6557.0%2102
0.455
2615 Mar 2026ARijeka2–0W0.852.6629.0%232
0.417
2720 Mar 2026HVaraždin2–1W0.421.5347.0%570
0.526
2807 Apr 2026HHajduk1–3L0.242.0832.0%241
0.138
2911 Apr 2026ALokomotiva0–2L0.781.2256.0%392
0.331
3018 Apr 2026HVukovar1–2L1.261.9772.0%394
0.377
3122 Apr 2026HDinamo0–2L0.181.8342.0%020
0.122
3227 Apr 2026AGorica0–1L0.951.6157.0%461
0.294
3304 May 2026HSlaven B.3–1W1.22.0748.0%471
0.552
3410 May 2026AOsijek1–0W0.670.5743.0%372
0.667
3517 May 2026HRijeka0–0D1.170.5550.0%273
0.545
3623 May 2026AVaraždin0–2L0.43.0559.0%480
0.21
Glossary of Terms
TermDefinition
xGExpected Goals — probability-weighted shots measure of how many goals a team should have scored
xGAExpected Goals Against — xG conceded by Istra
xAExpected Assists — probability that a key pass becomes an assist
PIPerformance Index — composite score (45% result, 30% chance quality, 15% territory, 10% possession)
PPGPoints Per Game
G+AGoals + Assists combined
CSClean Sheet — match with 0 goals conceded
Saves/90Goalkeeper saves per 90 minutes
sv/90Same as Saves/90
Def. actions/90Tackles + interceptions + clearances per 90 min
kp/90Key passes per 90 minutes
Shots/90Shots attempted per 90 minutes
Conv%Shot conversion rate (goals ÷ shots)
Pass%Pass accuracy percentage
Avg ratingSofascore match rating average (scale 1–10)
Sofascore ratingPer-player per-match rating by Sofascore platform